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Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Mammograms are not as awesome as we said they were

A few weeks ago I wrote a blog that addressed a newly released study of the effectiveness of mammograms. This article, in BMJ, looked at women who were followed over a 25-year period as part of a Canadian study, found that there was no evidence that mammograms reduced deaths from breast cancer. Most women who will die of breast cancer do so regardless of whether that cancer was diagnosed by a mammogram, and the few who are saved because their cancers were diagnosed earlier than they would have been if only clinical exam were used may have been canceled out by the far more significant number of women who were harmed by overdiagnosis, that is being diagnosed with a breast cancer that would never have troubled them had they not had mammogram screening.

I was concerned that this didn’t set off a huge discussion among doctors and all of the rest of us about whether we should really continue to do regular screening mammograms. Our lives, health and billions of dollars rest partially on the answer to this question. The fact that it is so important is probably why the conversation has been so slow to start. Not doing the tremendous number of screening mammograms we now do would be very destabilizing since hospitals and surgeons and radiologists depend heavily on this revenue stream.

Women’s health centers at hospitals are primarily about mammograms and breast cancer diagnosis and treatment. These employ nurses and administrative assistants and social workers and counselors. There are ongoing and yearly campaigns designed to get women to get mammograms. A major change in policy has the potential to free up a great deal of financial and human resources, but at the same time jobs will be lost and budgets broken. If we accept that mammograms have led to substantial overdiagnosis, this will have a huge emotional impact on women who have been diagnosed with breast cancer as a result of mammogram screening.

So it is not surprising that the response to this Canadian study was measured.

Two articles were published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, 1 addressing mammograms in general and the other mammograms in women over the age of 74. These articles have been published less than 2 months after the BMJ article and are already getting lots of press and lots of discussion. The article about the overall risks and benefits of mammography is a review of multiple studies, including the BMJ article, and is really interesting to read. It delicately steps around some strong evidence that mammograms have no particular value in saving women’s lives and comes up with numbers that nevertheless make preventative mammogram screening look unattractive. The conclusions are that mammograms do reduce breast cancer deaths, but on the order of 1-50 per 10,000 women screened for 10 years, depending on age. A total of around 300 will be diagnosed with breast cancer and up to a third of these cancers will be overdiagnosed, resulting in women presumably being treated with radiation, surgery and chemotherapy for tumors that would not have caused harm. Six thousand of the 10,000 screened with mammography, fully 60%, will be called back during this 10 years for abnormal mammograms that will need further workup, including more imaging and biopsies. Still, the conclusion is that mammograms reduce breast cancer mortality, but only a little bit.

But what about the Canadian study published in February? This looked at women aged 40-59 who were screened with either clinical examination (examination of the breast by a trained health care provider) or mammograms plus clinical examination over the 5 year study period and then followed for 25 years. The only difference in the groups at 25 years is that the mammogram group had more breast cancer. There was no mortality difference. Did the Canadian women in the BMJ study play catch-up and get mammograms after the study was done and so reap all of the mortality benefit? If so, they appear to have also avoided a certain amount of overdiagnosis by taking their 5-year holiday. There are many ways to study the efficacy of mammogram screening, and none of the many studies that have been analyzed and meta-analyzed was really able to do a gold standard approach. Because of the fact that we have embraced mammogram screening as our standard of care, we have not done the definitive study. Ideally we would compare a group of women who were denied access to mammograms for 25 years and only received clinical breast exams or breast self-examination to a group who had mammograms at varying frequencies, say every 1-4 years, along with their clinical breast exams. No such experiment has been done so we rely on evidence gleaned from huge populations over many years but with less than ideal designs.

The other article in today’s JAMA tackles the question of mammogram screening in patients older than 74. No actual studies have been done on this population and many countries stop recommending mammography for patients aged 70-75 years of age. In the U.S., a significant proportion of women getting mammograms are over 74. Today’s article concludes, based on extrapolating the data we have based on younger patients’ data, that there would be a mortality benefit of mammogram screening if the women in question were expected to live 10 or more years. That is such a can of worms. I have very warm and respectful relationships with many older women who are my patients and I find it very difficult to admit to myself, much less them, that I expect they will die before 10 years elapse. That also assumes that I have any reasonable idea. The most important predictor of being alive tomorrow is being alive today, which is the message I like patients to take with them.

In a delightful juxtaposition, Dr. Mary Tinetti, an academic geriatrician, wrote an article about how extrapolating benefits of interventions from younger to older patients is often inaccurate. She doesn’t address the mammogram issue, but her article is well placed. We really don’t know what good or harm mammogram screening will do for our patients beyond the ages we have studied. It does appear, however, that overdiagnosis increases with age (see the BMJ article), so more women in their final decades will be diagnosed with breast cancers that would never have caused them harm if we continue to subject them to screening mammograms. I have watched my elderly patients suffer through radiation and chemotherapy and it is a lousy way to enjoy retirement.

So this kerfuffle about whether to do mammograms or not is a really big deal, and there is much damage control going on. It is interesting to look at this from the sidelines, and I am sure there is much that I am not perceiving. Many well-meaning people are highly invested in the prevention of breast cancer and much good work is being done. Mammography is definitely not going away. It is a reasonable way to detect breast cancer, and detecting breast cancer comes before treating it, and we have improved tremendously in our ability to effectively treat and cure it. Mammogram screening for patients at high risk yields a whole different set of numbers than what I have quoted. There may also be ways to augment mammogram screening with other testing to make sure that the breast cancers we treat actually need to be treated. It is past time, though, that we question the wisdom of pushing for regular mammograms in unselected women over the age of 50.

Janice Boughton, MD, ACP Member, practiced in the Seattle area for four years and in rural Idaho for 17 years before deciding to take a few years off to see more places, learn more about medicine and increase her knowledge base and perspective by practicing hospital and primary care medicine as a locum tenens physician. She lives in Idaho when not traveling. Disturbed by various aspects of the practice of medicine that make no sense and concerned about the cost of providing health care to every American, she blogs at Why is American Health Care So Expensive?, where this post originally appeared.

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Blog log

Members of the American College of Physicians contribute posts from their own sites to ACP Internistand ACP Hospitalist. Contributors include:

Albert Fuchs, MD
Albert Fuchs, MD, FACP, graduated from the University of California, Los Angeles School of Medicine, where he also did his internal medicine training. Certified by the American Board of Internal Medicine, Dr. Fuchs spent three years as a full-time faculty member at UCLA School of Medicine before opening his private practice in Beverly Hills in 2000.

And Thus, It Begins
Amanda Xi, ACP Medical Student Member, is a first-year medical student at the OUWB School of Medicine, charter class of 2015, in Rochester, Mich., from which she which chronicles her journey through medical training from day 1 of medical school.

Auscultation
Ira S. Nash, MD, FACP, is the senior vice president and executive director of the North Shore-LIJ Medical Group, and a professor of Cardiology and Population Health at Hofstra North Shore-LIJ School of Medicine. He is Board Certified in Internal Medicine and Cardiovascular Diseases and was in the private practice of cardiology before joining the full-time faculty of Massachusetts General Hospital.

Zackary Berger
Zackary Berger, MD, ACP Member, is a primary care doctor and general internist in the Division of General Internal Medicine at Johns Hopkins. His research interests include doctor-patient communication, bioethics, and systematic reviews.

Controversies in Hospital Infection Prevention
Run by three ACP Fellows, this blog ponders vexing issues in infection prevention and control, inside and outside the hospital. Daniel J Diekema, MD, FACP, practices infectious diseases, clinical microbiology, and hospital epidemiology in Iowa City, Iowa, splitting time between seeing patients with infectious diseases, diagnosing infections in the microbiology laboratory, and trying to prevent infections in the hospital. Michael B. Edmond, MD, FACP, is a hospital epidemiologist in Richmond, Va., with a focus on understanding why infections occur in the hospital and ways to prevent these infections, and sees patients in the inpatient and outpatient settings. Eli N. Perencevich, MD, ACP Member, is an infectious disease physician and epidemiologist in Iowa City, Iowa, who studies methods to halt the spread of resistant bacteria in our hospitals (including novel ways to get everyone to wash their hands).

db's Medical Rants
Robert M. Centor, MD, FACP, contributes short essays contemplating medicine and the health care system.

Suneel Dhand, MD, ACP Member
Suneel Dhand, MD, ACP Member, is a practicing physician in Massachusetts. He has published numerous articles in clinical medicine, covering a wide range of specialty areas including; pulmonology, cardiology, endocrinology, hematology, and infectious disease. He has also authored chapters in the prestigious "5-Minute Clinical Consult" medical textbook. His other clinical interests include quality improvement, hospital safety, hospital utilization, and the use of technology in health care.

DrDialogue
Juliet K. Mavromatis, MD, FACP, provides a conversation about health topics for patients and health professionals.

Dr. Mintz' Blog
Matthew Mintz, MD, FACP, has practiced internal medicine for more than a decade and is an Associate Professor of Medicine at an academic medical center on the East Coast. His time is split between teaching medical students and residents, and caring for patients.

Everything Health
Toni Brayer, MD, FACP, blogs about the rapid changes in science, medicine, health and healing in the 21st century.

FutureDocs
Vineet Arora, MD, FACP, is Associate Program Director for the Internal Medicine Residency and Assistant Dean of Scholarship & Discovery at the Pritzker School of Medicine for the University of Chicago. Her education and research focus is on resident duty hours, patient handoffs, medical professionalism, and quality of hospital care. She is also an academic hospitalist.

Glass Hospital
John H. Schumann, MD, FACP, provides transparency on the workings of medical practice and the complexities of hospital care, illuminates the emotional and cognitive aspects of caregiving and decision-making from the perspective of an active primary care physician, and offers behind-the-scenes portraits of hospital sanctums and the people who inhabit them.

Gut Check
Ryan Madanick, MD, ACP Member, is a gastroenterologist at the University of North Carolina School of Medicine, and the Program Director for the GI & Hepatology Fellowship Program. He specializes in diseases of the esophagus, with a strong interest in the diagnosis and treatment of patients who have difficult-to-manage esophageal problems such as refractory GERD, heartburn, and chest pain.

I'm dok
Mike Aref, MD, PhD, FACP, is an academic hospitalist with an interest in basic and clinical science and education, with interests in noninvasive monitoring and diagnostic testing using novel bedside imaging modalities, diagnostic reasoning, medical informatics, new medical education modalities, pre-code/code management, palliative care, patient-physician communication, quality improvement, and quantitative biomedical imaging.

Informatics Professor
William Hersh, MD, FACP, Professor and Chair, Department of Medical Informatics & Clinical Epidemiology, Oregon Health & Science University, posts his thoughts on various topics related to biomedical and health informatics.

David Katz, MD
David L. Katz, MD, MPH, FACP, is an internationally renowned authority on nutrition, weight management, and the prevention of chronic disease, and an internationally recognized leader in integrative medicine and patient-centered care.

Just Oncology
Richard Just, MD, ACP Member, has 36 years in clinical practice of hematology and medical oncology. His blog is a joint publication with Gregg Masters, MPH.

KevinMD
Kevin Pho, MD, ACP Member, offers one of the Web's definitive sites for influential health commentary.

MD Whistleblower
Michael Kirsch, MD, FACP, addresses the joys and challenges of medical practice, including controversies in the doctor-patient relationship, medical ethics and measuring medical quality. When he's not writing, he's performing colonoscopies.

Medical Lessons
Elaine Schattner, MD, FACP, shares her ideas on education, ethics in medicine, health care news and culture. Her views on medicine are informed by her past experiences in caring for patients, as a researcher in cancer immunology, and as a patient who's had breast cancer.

Mired in MedEd
Alexander M. Djuricich, MD, FACP, is the Associate Dean for Continuing Medical Education (CME), and a Program Director in Medicine-Pediatrics at the Indiana University School of Medicine in Indianapolis, where he blogs about medical education.

More Musings
Rob Lamberts, MD, ACP Member, a med-peds and general practice internist, returns with "volume 2" of his personal musings about medicine, life, armadillos and Sasquatch at More Musings (of a Distractible Kind).

Prescriptions
David M. Sack, MD, FACP, practices general gastroenterology at a small community hospital in Connecticut. His blog is a series of musings on medicine, medical care, the health care system and medical ethics, in no particular order.

Reflections of a Grady Doctor
Kimberly Manning, MD, FACP, reflects on the personal side of being a doctor in a community hospital in Atlanta.

The Blog of Paul Sufka
Paul Sufka, MD, ACP Member, is a board certified rheumatologist in St. Paul, Minn. He was a chief resident in internal medicine with the University of Minnesota and then completed his fellowship training in rheumatology in June 2011 at the University of Minnesota Department of Rheumatology. His interests include the use of technology in medicine.

Technology in (Medical) Education
Neil Mehta, MBBS, MS, FACP, is interested in use of technology in education, social media and networking, practice management and evidence-based medicine tools, personal information and knowledge management.

Peter A. Lipson, MD
Peter A. Lipson, MD, ACP Member, is a practicing internist and teaching physician in Southeast Michigan. The blog, which has been around in various forms since 2007, offers musings on the intersection of science, medicine, and culture.

Why is American Health Care So Expensive?
Janice Boughton, MD, FACP, practiced internal medicine for 20 years before adopting a career in hospital and primary care medicine as a locum tenens physician. She lives in Idaho when not traveling.

World's Best Site
Daniel Ginsberg, MD, FACP, is an internal medicine physician who has avidly applied computers to medicine since 1986, when he first wrote medically oriented computer programs. He is in practice in Tacoma, Washington.

Other blogs of note:

American Journal of Medicine
Also known as the Green Journal, the American Journal of Medicine publishes original clinical articles of interest to physicians in internal medicine and its subspecialities, both in academia and community-based practice.

Clinical Correlations
A collaborative medical blog started by Neil Shapiro, MD, ACP Member, associate program director at New York University Medical Center's internal medicine residency program. Faculty, residents and students contribute case studies, mystery quizzes, news, commentary and more.

Interact MD
Michael Benjamin, MD, ACP member, doesn't accept industry money so he can create an independent, clinician-reviewed space on the Internet for physicians to report and comment on the medical news of the day.

PLoS Blog
The Public Library of Science's open access materials include a blog.

White Coat Rants
One of the most popular anonymous blogs written by an emergency room physician.

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