Wednesday, April 13, 2016
Why most published research findings are false
In 2005 Dr. John Ioannidis, a Greek researcher who is best known for his critiques of the science of medicine, published a paper titled “Why Most Published Research Findings are False.” This was not from the point of view of a science denier—actually closer to the opposite. Ioannidis loves good science, but points out that the vast majority of scientific studies today are biased, often asking the wrong questions and making the wrong inferences. In the case of medicine, this often means that claims of the effectiveness of a treatment or diagnostic test are exaggerated and often just plain wrong. This stems partly from the fact that positive and exciting results lead to further funding for the researcher involved and that the sources of this funding are often entities such as drug companies that stand to benefit from a certain outcome.
Recently Dr. Ioannidis published a new article, much more accessible than the first, entitled “Evidence Based Medicine Has Been Hijacked: A Letter to Dr. David Sackett.” The first was very much based on math and statistics. He observed that most studies, when repeated, came up with different results. This was particularly true of studies with smaller numbers of subjects and ones where the effect sizes were small. Such studies were more likely to come out of fields in which there was money to be made out of a positive result and ones in which the field of study was particularly hot and therefore several groups were competing to get results.
The second and most recent article is a conversation with one of Ioannidis' most important mentors, a man named David Sackett who was possibly the first person to introduce the concept of evidence-based medicine. By this he meant combining understanding of science and research with clinical judgment and experience. This idea was inspiring to John Ioannidis and his relationship with David Sackett was profoundly influential in his career. David Sackett died in May of 2015. He was apparently not only a wonderful clinical teacher but a great and appreciative listener. Dr. Ioannidis has been explaining his hopes and frustrations to the David Sackett who remains very much alive in his mind, and in this article Dr. Ioannidis shares with his internal Dr. Sackett his frustration with what has become of evidence based medicine. It is a delightful article and well worth a read. In it he laments the growing body of crappy and biased research upon which much of our advice to patients is now built.
This article is important for all practicing physicians to read and yet, when I tried to find it, the journal in which it was published asked that I part with around $32 to see it. This felt a bit ironic. The article by the man who champions truth and transparency was guarded by trolls who wanted $32 a pop. But then it became free, and if you click on the link above, you will be able to read it. I'm not sure there is a moral to this part of the story, but I'm guessing that the irony was noted by Dr. Ioannidis who told the journal editors that they could do whatever they wanted with the rest of the content of their issues, but they could jolly well make his article available for free. Still, in addition to the bias present in medical studies, lack of free access to the original articles further dilutes any truth to be found in them. Any scientific study that is likely to be “click bait”--that is to say interesting enough to readers that they will click on a link to read more about it--is written up by a journalist who will strip it of any actual detail and spin it any way that will engender further clicking behaviors. I venture to say that the vast majority of learning about clinical research by practicing physicians is through articles written about articles. These are produced by companies such as Medpage Today whose entire mission is to make money through advertising based on the number of times we click on their headline news. Their articles on articles appear to us to be a vital service, though, because most research articles are not free to us in their entirety and keeping up on the breadth of medical knowledge by subscribing to a vast number of journals is neither efficient nor affordable.
These are fascinating things to think about. My present distilled words of wisdom are:
1. Read Ioannidis' article while it's still free, before the journal changes its mind.
2. Don't take what passes for science too terribly seriously, especially if the effect is small or it goes against common sense and what you know about human physiology.
3. Really don't base your practice off of news releases about articles you haven't read or thought about.
4. Agitate for free and open access to important scientific research so you can read it critically for yourself.
Janice Boughton, MD, ACP Member, practiced in the Seattle area for four years and in rural Idaho for 17 years before deciding to take a few years off to see more places, learn more about medicine and increase her knowledge base and perspective by practicing hospital and primary care medicine as a locum tenens physician. She lives in Idaho when not traveling. Disturbed by various aspects of the practice of medicine that make no sense and concerned about the cost of providing health care to every American, she blogs at Why is American Health Care So Expensive?, where this post originally appeared.
Contact ACP Internist
Send comments to ACP Internist staff at email@example.com.
- Do stuff
- Patient-centered care, part 1
- Are GMO foods safe?
- Public health and citizens, truly united
- Improving patient experience-within reason
- Moving beyond the 0.05 P value
- Our slow motion pandemic
- Incentives and capabilities
- Protecting human subjects in medical research
- Fatness, affluence, adaptation, and hope
Members of the American College of Physicians contribute posts from their own sites to ACP Internistand ACP Hospitalist. Contributors include:
Albert Fuchs, MD, FACP, graduated from the University of California, Los Angeles School of Medicine, where he also did his internal medicine training. Certified by the American Board of Internal Medicine, Dr. Fuchs spent three years as a full-time faculty member at UCLA School of Medicine before opening his private practice in Beverly Hills in 2000.
And Thus, It Begins
Amanda Xi, ACP Medical Student Member, is a first-year medical student at the OUWB School of Medicine, charter class of 2015, in Rochester, Mich., from which she which chronicles her journey through medical training from day 1 of medical school.
Ira S. Nash, MD, FACP, is the senior vice president and executive director of the North Shore-LIJ Medical Group, and a professor of Cardiology and Population Health at Hofstra North Shore-LIJ School of Medicine. He is Board Certified in Internal Medicine and Cardiovascular Diseases and was in the private practice of cardiology before joining the full-time faculty of Massachusetts General Hospital.
Zackary Berger, MD, ACP Member, is a primary care doctor and general internist in the Division of General Internal Medicine at Johns Hopkins. His research interests include doctor-patient communication, bioethics, and systematic reviews.
Controversies in Hospital
Run by three ACP Fellows, this blog ponders vexing issues in infection prevention and control, inside and outside the hospital. Daniel J Diekema, MD, FACP, practices infectious diseases, clinical microbiology, and hospital epidemiology in Iowa City, Iowa, splitting time between seeing patients with infectious diseases, diagnosing infections in the microbiology laboratory, and trying to prevent infections in the hospital. Michael B. Edmond, MD, FACP, is a hospital epidemiologist in Iowa City, IA, with a focus on understanding why infections occur in the hospital and ways to prevent these infections, and sees patients in the inpatient and outpatient settings. Eli N. Perencevich, MD, ACP Member, is an infectious disease physician and epidemiologist in Iowa City, Iowa, who studies methods to halt the spread of resistant bacteria in our hospitals (including novel ways to get everyone to wash their hands).
db's Medical Rants
Robert M. Centor, MD, FACP, contributes short essays contemplating medicine and the health care system.
Suneel Dhand, MD, ACP Member
Suneel Dhand, MD, ACP Member, is a practicing physician in Massachusetts. He has published numerous articles in clinical medicine, covering a wide range of specialty areas including; pulmonology, cardiology, endocrinology, hematology, and infectious disease. He has also authored chapters in the prestigious "5-Minute Clinical Consult" medical textbook. His other clinical interests include quality improvement, hospital safety, hospital utilization, and the use of technology in health care.
Juliet K. Mavromatis, MD, FACP, provides a conversation about health topics for patients and health professionals.
Dr. Mintz' Blog
Matthew Mintz, MD, FACP, has practiced internal medicine for more than a decade and is an Associate Professor of Medicine at an academic medical center on the East Coast. His time is split between teaching medical students and residents, and caring for patients.
Toni Brayer, MD, FACP, blogs about the rapid changes in science, medicine, health and healing in the 21st century.
Vineet Arora, MD, FACP, is Associate Program Director for the Internal Medicine Residency and Assistant Dean of Scholarship & Discovery at the Pritzker School of Medicine for the University of Chicago. Her education and research focus is on resident duty hours, patient handoffs, medical professionalism, and quality of hospital care. She is also an academic hospitalist.
John H. Schumann, MD, FACP, provides transparency on the workings of medical practice and the complexities of hospital care, illuminates the emotional and cognitive aspects of caregiving and decision-making from the perspective of an active primary care physician, and offers behind-the-scenes portraits of hospital sanctums and the people who inhabit them.
Ryan Madanick, MD, ACP Member, is a gastroenterologist at the University of North Carolina School of Medicine, and the Program Director for the GI & Hepatology Fellowship Program. He specializes in diseases of the esophagus, with a strong interest in the diagnosis and treatment of patients who have difficult-to-manage esophageal problems such as refractory GERD, heartburn, and chest pain.
Mike Aref, MD, PhD, FACP, is an academic hospitalist with an interest in basic and clinical science and education, with interests in noninvasive monitoring and diagnostic testing using novel bedside imaging modalities, diagnostic reasoning, medical informatics, new medical education modalities, pre-code/code management, palliative care, patient-physician communication, quality improvement, and quantitative biomedical imaging.
William Hersh, MD, FACP, Professor and Chair, Department of Medical Informatics & Clinical Epidemiology, Oregon Health & Science University, posts his thoughts on various topics related to biomedical and health informatics.
David Katz, MD
David L. Katz, MD, MPH, FACP, is an internationally renowned authority on nutrition, weight management, and the prevention of chronic disease, and an internationally recognized leader in integrative medicine and patient-centered care.
Richard Just, MD, ACP Member, has 36 years in clinical practice of hematology and medical oncology. His blog is a joint publication with Gregg Masters, MPH.
Kevin Pho, MD, ACP Member, offers one of the Web's definitive sites for influential health commentary.
Michael Kirsch, MD, FACP, addresses the joys and challenges of medical practice, including controversies in the doctor-patient relationship, medical ethics and measuring medical quality. When he's not writing, he's performing colonoscopies.
Elaine Schattner, MD, FACP, shares her ideas on education, ethics in medicine, health care news and culture. Her views on medicine are informed by her past experiences in caring for patients, as a researcher in cancer immunology, and as a patient who's had breast cancer.
Mired in MedEd
Alexander M. Djuricich, MD, FACP, is the Associate Dean for Continuing Medical Education (CME), and a Program Director in Medicine-Pediatrics at the Indiana University School of Medicine in Indianapolis, where he blogs about medical education.
Rob Lamberts, MD, ACP Member, a med-peds and general practice internist, returns with "volume 2" of his personal musings about medicine, life, armadillos and Sasquatch at More Musings (of a Distractible Kind).
David M. Sack, MD, FACP, practices general gastroenterology at a small community hospital in Connecticut. His blog is a series of musings on medicine, medical care, the health care system and medical ethics, in no particular order.
Reflections of a Grady
Kimberly Manning, MD, FACP, reflects on the personal side of being a doctor in a community hospital in Atlanta.
The Blog of Paul Sufka
Paul Sufka, MD, ACP Member, is a board certified rheumatologist in St. Paul, Minn. He was a chief resident in internal medicine with the University of Minnesota and then completed his fellowship training in rheumatology in June 2011 at the University of Minnesota Department of Rheumatology. His interests include the use of technology in medicine.
Technology in (Medical)
Neil Mehta, MBBS, MS, FACP, is interested in use of technology in education, social media and networking, practice management and evidence-based medicine tools, personal information and knowledge management.
Peter A. Lipson,
Peter A. Lipson, MD, ACP Member, is a practicing internist and teaching physician in Southeast Michigan. The blog, which has been around in various forms since 2007, offers musings on the intersection of science, medicine, and culture.
Why is American Health Care So Expensive?
Janice Boughton, MD, FACP, practiced internal medicine for 20 years before adopting a career in hospital and primary care medicine as a locum tenens physician. She lives in Idaho when not traveling.
World's Best Site
Daniel Ginsberg, MD, FACP, is an internal medicine physician who has avidly applied computers to medicine since 1986, when he first wrote medically oriented computer programs. He is in practice in Tacoma, Washington.
Other blogs of note:
American Journal of
Also known as the Green Journal, the American Journal of Medicine publishes original clinical articles of interest to physicians in internal medicine and its subspecialities, both in academia and community-based practice.
A collaborative medical blog started by Neil Shapiro, MD, ACP Member, associate program director at New York University Medical Center's internal medicine residency program. Faculty, residents and students contribute case studies, mystery quizzes, news, commentary and more.
Michael Benjamin, MD, ACP member, doesn't accept industry money so he can create an independent, clinician-reviewed space on the Internet for physicians to report and comment on the medical news of the day.
The Public Library of Science's open access materials include a blog.
One of the most popular anonymous blogs written by an emergency room physician.